To assess hereafter seismic hazards along the fault, scientists from the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) as well as the Chinese Earthquake Administration (CEA) convey reconstructed, for the outset time, a spatial designing of major earthquakes along the fault. Their reconstruction is based on
(1) detailed analysis of the available instrumental records inward the yesteryear few decades;
(2) historical records inward the yesteryear 4,000 years; and
(3) pre-historical records tracing dorsum nearly 11,000 years.
A surprising finding from this operate is the beingness of a 160-km seismic gap centered at Tianjin, which has non been ruptured yesteryear whatsoever major earthquake for to a greater extent than than 8,400 years. As the average earthquake bike is close 8,700 years, the authors propose that the 160-km Tianjin mistake segment, capable of generating a devastating earthquake like to the 1976 Tangshan earthquake, may survive the adjacent to rupture.